We have sailed through more than half of 2022 with many ups and downs in the Commodities market. July ended with a boom in the prices of Metals and Bullion, while Energy ended with mixed sentiments.
The FED rate hike in the last week, surprisingly took Gold to the upside as the market seemed to have already discounted the rate hike before it was announced. What edged Gold higher was lower than expected US GDP at -0.9% against 0.4%.
During the next week, the important economic data that can affect commodity prices are US ISM Manufacturing PMI, US JOLTS Jobs Opening, ISM Services PMI, and Unemployment Claims.
In the Indian Market, we have the RBI Interest Rate decision to be announced on Friday. RBI raised its key repo rate by 50 bps to 4.9% during its June meeting, after May’s unexpected 40 bps hike, it was intending to guarantee inflation stays inside target going ahead while supporting development.
Now, let’s have a look at the weekly technical levels of Major MCX Commodities
In the previous month, gold fell for the first two weeks only to recover in the latter part of July ahead and after the Fed interest rate hike was announced. Gold has shown positive signs towards the monthly closing as it formed strong support from the low of its recent retracement to 49700 levels.
On the weekly front, Gold has extremely strong support at 50550. And as it is moving higher, it will face a strong hurdle at 52300 from the current levels of 51430.
The immediate resistance is 51550. If Gold manages to break and sustain above it, we can expect 51750—52000 and then an attempt to break its major resistance level of 52300 in the coming week.
Inability to jolt above 51550, will drag Gold lower to retest its support levels as mentioned above. If the 50550 level will be broken to the downside, then retesting of 50000-49700 levels will be on the cards, which is less likely as per the current trend.
Silver had been testing the patience of bulls for the last two weeks before confirming its major reversal from the bottom levels. The Gold-Silver ratio had been moving lower in the past week indicating that Silver is more bullish than Gold.
Silver has its major support at 56000 and the immediate support is seen at 57240. Since Silver has reversed after a long retracement, any minor dip in it will be an opportunity to buy until it breaks and sustains below its major support level of 56000. Below it, it may retest its reversal level of 54100-54000 which seems unlikely for the coming week.
The immediate resistance is seen at 58600 and the major resistance is at 59000 around which we can expect a minor dip. To the upside, we can see Silver approaching the 59600 mark.
Metals edged up in the last week supported by a dip in the Dollar, and hopes of stimulus from China.
It reversed from the bottom levels, major support is intact at 201. We can expect a minor dip till 210–208 levels for the fresh buying.
The immediate support is seen at 207.50 and the immediate resistance is 216.00. A break and close above it will take Aluminium further to 218.50—223–225.50 levels in the coming days, else it can retest its support level of 207.
MCX Copper has retraced more than 23.6% from the recent fall from June and has managed to comfortably close above its psychological resistance level of 650.
Now, a small dip will give more comfortable buying levels to the traders. It has its major support at 630 and the immediate support level is seen at 645.
From the previous closing level of 657.90, the major and immediate resistance is seen at 660. A break and close above it take it further to 665—669 levels in the coming week.
On the previous closing, Zinc moved higher than other Base metals, surged 3.5% to close at 295.85 level.
Zinc has almost retracted 50% from the recent fall from the month of June and now a minor dip will be a more restful level for fresh buying. Zinc now has its major support at 279 and immediate support at 284.
The major resistance is seen at 303, above which 309—315 levels can be expected.
MCX Crude Oil has been quite moving in a range of 7450—8350, which can be marked as major support and major resistance, respectively.
A buy-on dip and sell-on-rise strategy seem appropriate until either of the levels is broken and confirmed to either side.
The immediate support is 7680. Below this we can expect a retest of support levels of 7450—7200. And, the immediate resistance is seen at 8100. A break and close above which can expect a retest of the resistance level of 8350, unless aggressive movement is seen to either side.
NG made a new high in the month of July as it aggressively moved higher from the bottom levels, but did not sustain on the top, only to give a correction later in the last week of the month.
Natural Gas has its weekly support at 627 and the immediate resistance is seen at 666.
If this correction extends further and the support level of 627 is broken to the downside, we can expect a destructively sharp correction to the downside till 594—555 levels.
If NG manages to hold the support level, then we can expect it to edge higher to 705—716 and then finally retest its new high of 760.
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