Dear Followers, Hope you must be following our weekly and intraday MCX Commodities levels and getting benefit from that. Our last week’s levels have proven great, hope you must have followed the same. Click here to read what we had written in our last week’s blog!
Last Week Recap:
Last week we have major selling pressure on GOLD prices. On Comex division gold has broken its important support level of $1800 and fell vertically from there. It made a weekly low of $1726 and finally settled the week at around $1742 after a small bounce back. On the other hand, SILVER in the Comex division fell from $20 to $18.70 during the week. In MCX from its weekly high of 58978 to its weekly low of 56100 Silver almost fell ₹ 3000 and since last Wednesday it’s moving in a very strict range, closing the week at around 57131.
In the Base metals counter, we have seen a good panic, where COPPER hit the worst. From its weekly high of 680 to its weekly low of 630, It has fallen by almost 50 Rs and broke its 52-week low on MCX and COMEX. ZINC was the 2nd worst performer in the base metals pack followed by ALUMINIUM. We will discuss weekly levels of base metals ahead in the blog.
In the energy counter, CRUDE OIL has witnessed tremendous pressure while NATURAL GAS has witnessed some relief rally from lower levels. On COMEX, Crude oil prices fell from their weekly high of $111.42. Made low of $95.13 and bounce back from that level only which is its EMA 200 support level.
On MCX from its weekly high of 8748 to its weekly low of 7535, it almost fell for 1200 ₹ but finally closed the week at around 8299. Natural Gas on the other hand after making weekly low of 425 finally closed the week at around 483.
Key Events for the coming session:
Market players will be watching the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) data on July 12 in the next week. The annual inflation rate in India fell to 7.04 percent in May 2022, down from an eight-year high of 7.79 percent the previous month. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is also planned to be released on the same day.
Traders will also be looking forward to the June Wholesale Price Index (WPI) data, which is set to be issued on July 14. The wholesale price inflation rate in India increased to 15.88% in May 2022, up from 15.08% the previous month (Both are Indian Data numbers)
In context to foreign data we have,
On July 13 (Wednesday) we have CPI m/m, Core CPI m/m, and Crude Oil inventories (US Data)
On July 14 (Thursday) PPI m/m, Core PPI m/m, Unemployment Claims and Natural Gas Storage (US Data)
July 15 (Friday) will be the day where traders should remain cautious as CHINA will release its GDP q/y along with retail sales data at 07:30 AM, before the Indian Market Open, so avoid carrying overnight positions ,especially in Base metals commodities as volatility might witness.
On the same day in US Data we have, Core Retail Sales m/m, Retail Sales m/m, and Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment data to look for.
Now, let’s discuss the weekly technical levels of Major MCX Commodities
Gold fell sharply in the first part of the previous week, reaching its lowest level since September 2021. The broad-based dollar rise, along with growing recession worries and a worsening demand forecast for gold, prompted it to close in the red for the fourth week in a row.
Now in the coming days, Gold has a support zone around the 50450—50150. Any sustained move below this level will take it down towards 50000 which will act as crucial support. If it manages to close below 50000 levels, then we may see levels of 49750—49450—-49150.
Resistance on the upside for the Gold is around the 51000–51100 zone, above this, we may see levels of 51300—-51470—-51640++. A sustained move above the 51900—52000 would see the upside move towards the 52400—-52800 level in the coming days.
Silver traded near its two-year low during the previous week. Continuous lower highs and lower lows are seen on the charts, with momentum oscillators and moving averages all pointing towards the downside.
Now for the week ahead, Any sustainable trading action above 57550, may take Silver towards its immediate upside target of 58070—58400—-58650. A sustained move above the 59050 level on four hourly closing basis may take towards 59600 and then to the 60000 in the coming days.
The immediate downside support base for this week is seen around the 55900 level, below this we may see levels of 55400—54960.
Almost all base metals counter in mcx commodities respected our previous week’s levels, traders who have followed must have minted money in it.
Copper (July) has immediate support around 650–647. Any sustainable trading action below this may take it downwards towards 640—-630. If the levels of 630 break on the charts on the 4—hourly closing basis, then more panic can be seen.
Upside resistance is around the 668—670, sustainable trading action above this may take it higher towards the 680—-689—-700 level. A fresh upside move can only be seen above the 700 level for the upside move towards 720++ levels.
Aluminum (July) has a resistance zone around 215–217. A sustainable close above this will see the upside move towards 221–222. Cross above 223—225 zones then it will touch 230 and then 235++ in the coming days.
On the downside, the immediate support is around 204–203. Major support is at 200, if aluminum breach that level then we may see levels of 193—-188—181 on the charts.
Zinc (July) has an immediate resistance zone around 283–285. Above that, we may see 289–294–299. Major resistance is at around 303–305 and from there we may see some pressure on it.
On the downside, immediate support is around 273, below this, we may see the level of 267—265–260. A fresh downside move can only be seen below 260 for the move towards the 255—-250 level.
Lead (July) for the coming week, the resistance zone is at 176.50–178. A sustainable move above 178 will lead to 181.50.
Immediate support is around 173, below this level of 171 can be seen on the charts. Sustain move below the 168, may it downwards towards 164 level.
Natural Gas, immediate support zone is around 475–465. Below this we may see panic till 450 and then 445. From 445–442 is a bounce-back zone and one can look for buying opportunities at that level. Stop loss would be below 421. Below 420 we may see more panic in it.
On the upper side, the immediate resistance zone at 506–512. A sustainable move above 512 will take it to 523–536 and finally 545.
Crude Oil range is very big so we will publish the same intraday. Keep following our blog.
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