Tough fight seen between Bulls & Bears of the Dalal Street during the week ended April 8. Sensex and Nifty – trades range-bound and ended with a nominal gain of 0.64 percent during the week. The key indices sustained losses for the three out of the five trading sessions of the week.
On Friday, Markets snapped their 3-day losing streak as investors resumed buying after the RBI in its monetary policy announcement said it would continue with its accommodative stance and stated inflation would cool going ahead.
Now, the focus has shifted to the Q4 earnings season, which will start next week, initiated by the IT & Banking sector. Outlook for the banking sector is robust due to rapid bounce in credit growth & improvement in balance sheet while preview for IT is mixed as Q4 is seasonally weak.
Weekly Market Summary
Nifty (up 0.64%) – Open 17809.10, High 18114.65, Low 17600.55, Close 17784.35
Bank Nifty (up 1.64%) – Open 37824.95, High 38765.85, Low 37346.80, Close 37752.05
Sensex (up 0.29 %) – Open 59764.13, High 60845.10, Low 58876.36, Close 59447.18
India Vix – down 4.05% to end at 17.6875 levels on a weekly basis
FII’s: Net Sellers : (-6337.53 Crores) during the week
DII’s: Net Buyers : (+4161.54 Crores) during the week
Bullish Sectors of the week – Metal (+4.30%), Energy (+4.00%),
Bearish Sectors of the week – IT (-2.61%), Reality (-0.01%)
Weekly Top Gainers Stocks – Adani Port (+6.82%), NTPC (+3.80%)
Weekly Top Losers Stocks – INFY (-4.67%), Wipro (-3.02%)
Nifty Open Interest Put Call Ratio (PCR): 0.76
Maximum CE Open Interest Strike: 18500
Maximum PE Open Interest Strike: 17000
Bank Nifty Open Interest Put Call Ratio (PCR): 0.79
Maximum CE Open Interest Strike: 38000
Maximum PE Open Interest Strike: 37500
(The maximum CE PE open interest strike rate indicates that the market is likely to move in that particular range in the coming days)
Technical View Of Nifty and Bank Nifty
On the weekly chart, the index has formed a candle that resembles a Doji pattern, which indicates a loss of momentum after the recent run-up from 17000. The daily momentum indicator is also showing signs of fatigue.
Major benchmark Indices snapped a three-day losing streak and ended higher with the Nifty above 17700 after RBI’s monetary policy committee has kept the key rates unchanged.
Weekly Support and Resistance (Spot levels)
The short-term support for the Nifty is 17600. If it breaks that level, the short-term trend will turn down and the bears will take over. That could take the markets down to 17200–17000.
On the upside, the resistance is at 18000–18800 and until we do not get past that, the current range-bound movement will continue.
Nifty Futures Strategy for Monday
Nifty Future has resistance at 17950 if breaks and sustains above 17950 then it will take it to 18050–18150 levels.
Support at 17650 breaks and sustain below 17650 will take it to 17550–17450 levels.
On weekly charts, the financial benchmark index has formed a Doji kind of candlestick which points out the confusion between buyers & sellers.
A momentum indicator RSI & Stochastic has traded in the bullish territory on a weekly time frame.
Only RBL and IDFC bank ended on a negative note.
Weekly Support and Resistance (Spot Levels)
The short-term support for the Bank Nifty is 37000. If it breaks that level, the short-term trend will turn down and the bears will take over. That could take the markets down to 36200–35700.
On the upside, the resistance is at 39000–39800 and until we do not get past that, the current range-bound movement will continue.
Bank Nifty Futures Strategy for Monday
Bank Nifty Future has resistance at 38200 if breaks and sustain above 38200 then it will take it to 38400–38600 levels.
Support at 37500 breaks and sustain below 37500 will take it to 37250—37000 levels.
Weekly Sector Outlook
Nifty Infra is building a strong setup for fresh highs
We have seen a sharp one-sided rally in the past couple of weeks. Now we will expect a multiple resistance breakout on the weekly chart. Heavyweight stocks look strong in this sector.
Nifty Infra has near resistance around 5250, break and sustain above 5250 will see sharp upside move till next hurdle to 5350. If it is able to cross 5350 then we will expect a huge breakout on the charts in the next trading sessions. Close above 5350 will see a non-stop rally till 5500+ levels in days to come.
Now major support around 5000, break below 5000 will negate our bullish view in this sector.
Keep an eye on Shree Cement, Siemens, and Grasim.
Top Stock Picks of the Week
The stock has formed a rounding bottom pattern on the weekly chart. We will expect a huge breakout above its neckline in the coming days.
Strategy – Traders can go for buying around 555–550 for the upside target of 590 and then to 610 levels in days to come.
Support and stop loss below 525 on a closing basis
BHARAT FORGE FUTURES
Bharat Forge Futures stock has shown a “V” shape recovery from lower levels and also given a vertical trendline breakout on the daily chart. We will expect a major upside move in the coming days in the stock.
Strategy – Traders can grab Bharat Forge Futures around 747 for the targets of 765 and then 780 in the coming days. Support and stop loss below 728 on a closing basis.
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