Following a two-week downturn, the Indian Stock Market closed last week with positive returns. During the week, major main indexes and the majority of sectoral indices increased. Despite a drop in commodity prices, the auto industry led to a rebound. On the other hand, the Metal, Energy, and Oil & Gas indexes underperformed the overall markets. In an otherwise high global inflation environment, the recent correction in crude oil prices and softening in commodities prices provided some comfort to the markets. Monsoon progress is an essential aspect to monitor since a healthy monsoon will alleviate concerns about food prices.
What’s Next?
Markets are witnessing consolidation after the sharp decline and awaiting some fresh triggers. Since we don’t have any major domestic events, global updates viz. market performance, crude movement, and easing of the geopolitical situation will remain on the participants’ radar. We like Auto, FMCG, and Pharma for long trades while Metals and PSU banks may continue to underperform.
We recommend maintaining a sector/stock-specific approach and aligning the positions accordingly.
Indian Stock Market Weekly Summary
Nifty (up 2.65%) – Open 15334.50, High 15746.25, Low 15191.10, Close 15699.25
Bank Nifty (up 2.70%) – Open 32873.40, High 33721.90, Low 32426.40, Close 33627.45
Sensex (up 2.66%) – Open 51470.03, High 52909.87, Low 51062.93, Close 52727.98
India VIX – down 9.70% to end at 20.55 levels on a weekly basis
FII’s: Net Sellers: (-11.511.77 Crores) during the week.
DII’s: Net Buyers: (+11670.62 Crores) during the week.
Weekly Bullish Sectors – Auto (+6.9%), Consumption (+5.2%)
Weekly Bearish Sectors – Metal (-2.7%), PSE (-1.0%)
Top Gainers Stocks of the week – Hero Moto Corp (+11.86%), Eicher Motors (+10.48%)
Top Losers Stocks of the week – Vedanta (-16.10%), Tata Steel (-5.94)
Nifty Open Interest Put Call Ratio (PCR): 0.99
Maximum CE Open Interest Strike: 16000
Maximum PE Open Interest Strike: 15500
Bank Nifty Open Interest Put Call Ratio (PCR): 1.03
Maximum CE Open Interest Strike: 34000
Maximum PE Open Interest Strike: 32000
(The maximum CE PE open interest strike rate indicates that the market is likely to move in that particular range in the coming days)
Technical View of Nifty and Bank Nifty
Nifty
Nifty closed the week with an inside candle. On the weekly chart, we see a Bullish Harami Pattern.
As the pattern is a bullish reversal pattern, we can assume that the Nifty will see some upside move in the days to come.
Also, on the weekly time frame, we see the candle closing at the high of the weekly range. This is a bullish development.
Meanwhile, on the daily charts, the Nifty has not made a new low since June 16, 2022. This reluctance of the market to trade below the lows even after six days does suggest that the market is not in a mood to trade lower immediately.
Weekly Support and Resistance (Spot Levels)
The short-term support zone for the Nifty is around 15100—15000, sustainable move below this then we will see more selling pressure towards the downside that can take breadth around 14700 levels. And if it further breaks that level then a major selling will come towards 14500.
On the upside, the resistance is around the 15700—15800, a breakout from that level will take the index towards 16000 and then to the 16300 in the coming days.
Nifty Futures Strategy for Monday
Nifty Future has resistance at 15750. If it breaks and sustains above that level, then will take it to 15830-15900.
Support at 15600 breaks and sustain below that level will take it towards 15500–15400 levels.
Bank Nifty
Bank Nifty closed the week sharply higher and it seems that the support at 32480-32000 seems to be holding.
Bank Nifty seems to be a better buying opportunity than Nifty as the support is better defined.
We see a good quality positive divergence in the index, thus raising a comforting thought there could be a sustained rally in it.
Weekly Support and Resistance (Spot Levels)
The short-term immediate support for the Bank Nifty is 33000. If it breaks that level, then it could take the markets down to 32000—31000.
On the upside, the resistance zone is around 33800—34000. A sustainable breakout from that level will lead to an upside move in the coming days.
Bank Nifty Futures Strategy for Monday
Bank Nifty Future has resistance at 33800 if breaks and sustain above that level then it will take it to 34000–34250.
Support at 32400 breaks and sustain below that level then it will take it to 32200—33000.
Top Stock Recommendation Of The Week
Bharat Forge (Futures)
Strategy: The stock is currently at the major support level, and will likely move upward in the near term. Traders are advised to buy around 645 levels for the upside target of 650 and then to 655 levels in the near term.
Support and stop loss remains at 640 on a closing basis.
Trade safely with levels. For Nifty and Bank Nifty daily support and resistance visit our blog daily morning at 07.30 AM.
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