A disappointing week for the Indian Stock Market as benchmark equity indices BSE Sensex and NSE Nifty 50’s scaled their fresh 52-week lows during the week. The markets remained sluggish throughout the week as the rate hikes and inflationary pressure continued to be a major dragger. Theoretically, demand-side issues are tackled by the central bank through monetary policies while, the supply-side ones, are via the government’s fiscal measures.
Now, What’s Next?
Rising inflation and policy tightening by global central banks are forcing the market to discount the possibilities of recession. With central banks’ policy tone pointing towards continued rate hikes of higher magnitude, we can expect FIIs to maintain their selling spree.
The domestic market will continue to trade with high volatility in the near term, however, the ongoing corrections are opportunities in disguise for medium to long-term investments.
Weekly Index Update
Nifty (down 5.6%) – Open 15877.55, High 15886.15, Low 15183.40, Close 15293.50
Bank Nifty (down 5.0%) – Open 33725.65, High 33774.05, Low 32290.55, Close 32743.05
Sensex (down 5.42%) – Open 53184.61, High 53207.54, Low 50921.22, Close 51360.42
India VIX – up 16.26% to end at 22.75 levels on a weekly basis
FII’s: Net Sellers: (-23273.67 Crores) during the week
DII’s: Net Buyers: (+17226.16 Crores) during the week
Bullish Sectors Of The Week – Not a single sector in green.
Bearish Sectors Of The Week – Metal (-9.1%), PSE (-8.6%)
Weekly Top Gainers Stocks – Coal India (+8.33%), M&M (+7.96%)
Weekly Top Losers Stocks – Apollo Hospitals (-7.07%), Shree Cements (-5.88)
Nifty Open Interest Put Call Ratio (PCR): 0.76
Maximum CE Open Interest Strike: 15500
Maximum PE Open Interest Strike: 15200
Bank Nifty Open Interest Put Call Ratio (PCR): 0.78
Maximum CE Open Interest Strike: 33000
Maximum PE Open Interest Strike: 32500
(The maximum CE PE open interest strike rate indicates that the market is likely to move in that particular range in the coming days)
Technical View of Stock Market
Nifty remained volatile throughout the week and closed near to its 52-week-low.
During the week index broke its key support level and continued to trade below it.
Meanwhile, the Relative Strength ındex (RSI) indicator on the four-hourly chart has moved downwards below 50, suggesting that the index has failed to gather bullish momentum.
Weekly Support and Resistance (Spot levels)
The short-term support zone for the Nifty is around 15200—15000, sustainable move below this then we will see more selling pressure towards the downside that can take breadth around 14700. And if it further broke that level then a major selling will come towards 14500.
On the upside, the resistance is around the 15500—15600 breakouts from that level will take the index towards 15800 and then to the 16000 in the coming days.
Nifty Futures Strategy for Monday
Nifty Future has resistance at 15400 if it breaks and sustains above that level, then it will take it to 15500-15600.
Support at 15200 breaks and sustain below that level will take it towards 15100–15000.
The ongoing selling pressure on the Bank Nifty index has let it trade in the oversold territory.
Overall the high volatility is seen throughout the week, with downward momentum.
Now, for the coming week ahead, if the key supports are broken then we will see further selling towards the downside.
Weekly Support and Resistance (Spot Levels)
The short-term immediate support for the Bank Nifty is 32000. If it breaks that level, then it could take the markets down to 31000—30000.
On the upside, the resistance zone is around 32800—33000, sustainable breakout from that level will lead to a new upside level in the coming days.
Bank Nifty Futures Strategy for Monday
Bank Nifty Future has resistance at 33000 if breaks and sustain above that level then it will take it to 33200–33400.
Support at 32500 breaks and sustain below that level then it will take it to 32300—32100.
TOP STOCK PICK OF THE WEEK
The stock will likely give a trendline breakout on the hourly time-frame chart. It is also forming a base near to key support level which is indicating a bullish bias.
Strategy – Traders are advised to buy Alkem Futures above 3100, for the upside targets of 3150 and then to 3210 in the coming days. Support and stop-loss will remain at the 3020 on a closing basis.
More will update during the week. Trade safely with levels. For daily Nifty and Bank Nifty levels visit our blog every morning.
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